I think it's pretty iffy that Uber's stock price will be any higher 2 years from now, and I'm not sure it's a long term hold either. I don't really see their moat as being all that great either, especially since everyone understands that it's technically possible to make a profit... but on the other hand, the reward could be pretty high if they continue to dominate and somehow figure out how to make their operation more profitable (first mover with self-driving is one potential, but unlikely avenue to exploit).
the reason i said it was relatively safe was because it's beta hovers around 1.2, and i'd say that if it pops up with any consistency, it's probably a sell or a hedge. i didn't do a whole analysis because i don't care _that_ much but i think this is a good take. the self-driving thing isn't going to happen, so if i believed that i'd short the damn thing. again, just don't think it's that profitable either way!
I think time horizon is important for us to lay out here as well. I really couldn't care much less about beta *unless* I'm going for a trade and not an investment. Maybe we should sidebar this and work together on something kinda nerdy! Value investing is definitely one of my nerdy passions.
well, with t-bills not looking hella safe, there's a part of me that wants to figure out if there's a better metric than beta (there is). i'd love to see how uber works in both trades and investments.
Do you ever mess with DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis? That's typically my preferred way to think about any sort of investment, but it's not always the best fit, so I'll pass on many opportunities if I can't figure this part out.
I think it's pretty iffy that Uber's stock price will be any higher 2 years from now, and I'm not sure it's a long term hold either. I don't really see their moat as being all that great either, especially since everyone understands that it's technically possible to make a profit... but on the other hand, the reward could be pretty high if they continue to dominate and somehow figure out how to make their operation more profitable (first mover with self-driving is one potential, but unlikely avenue to exploit).
the reason i said it was relatively safe was because it's beta hovers around 1.2, and i'd say that if it pops up with any consistency, it's probably a sell or a hedge. i didn't do a whole analysis because i don't care _that_ much but i think this is a good take. the self-driving thing isn't going to happen, so if i believed that i'd short the damn thing. again, just don't think it's that profitable either way!
I think time horizon is important for us to lay out here as well. I really couldn't care much less about beta *unless* I'm going for a trade and not an investment. Maybe we should sidebar this and work together on something kinda nerdy! Value investing is definitely one of my nerdy passions.
well, with t-bills not looking hella safe, there's a part of me that wants to figure out if there's a better metric than beta (there is). i'd love to see how uber works in both trades and investments.
Do you ever mess with DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis? That's typically my preferred way to think about any sort of investment, but it's not always the best fit, so I'll pass on many opportunities if I can't figure this part out.
dcf is a great proxy. and very telling. cash is king.